Pride of place in my collection…

Regular readers will know that I have a longstanding interest in transportation, particularly buses and airliners, and that I built up sizeable collections of models of each kind. Most of these are now packed away (( I’d actually like to figure out how to sell them, but eBay feels so laborious.)) but occasionally I pick up a new item. And so this week I added a new airliner model to my collection, and I have to say that it’s the best small-scale replica I’ve ever seen.
Gemini 200 British Airways Airbus A320
(Click to enlarge.)
It’s a 1/200 scale model of a British Airways A320 by Gemini Jets. It’s one of their new “Gemini 200” range, and the level of detail that they’ve achieved is amazing. All of the antennas and warning lights are there; the engines have detailed metal fan blades; the undercarriage uses rubber tyres and the nosegear steers. And somehow ((Yes, I know, cheap Chinese labour.)) they’ve kept the price under $60. The closest I’ve seen to this in quality is the Herpa Premium line, where a 1/200 Boeing 737-300 costs around $300.
So I suspect I may be adding a couple more Gemini 200 aircraft to my collection. There’s a Monarch A321, and an American 737-800…..

The dishonesty of homeopaths

Must-read article in Bad Science on “The end of homeopathy?” Among other things the author addresses the way in which homeopaths distort the evidence. (The emphasis is mine.)

Why else might there be plenty of positive trials around, spuriously? Because of something called “publication bias“. In all fields of science, positive results are more likely to get published, because they are more newsworthy, there’s more mileage in publishing them for your career, and they’re more fun to write up. This is a problem for all of science. Medicine has addressed this problem, making people register their trial before they start, on a “clinical trials database“, so that you cannot hide disappointing data and pretend it never happened.
How big is the problem of publication bias in alternative medicine? Well now, in 1995, only 1% of all articles published in alternative medicine journals gave a negative result. The most recent figure is 5% negative. This is very, very low.
There is only one conclusion you can draw from this observation. Essentially, when a trial gives a negative result, alternative therapists, homeopaths or the homeopathic companies simply do not publish it….
Now, you could just pick out the positive trials, as homeopaths do, and quote only those. This is called “cherry picking” the literature – it is not a new trick, and it is dishonest, because it misrepresents the totality of the literature. There is a special mathematical tool called a “meta-analysis“, where you take all the results from all the studies on one subject, and put the figures into one giant spreadsheet, to get the most representative overall answer. When you do this, time and time again, and you exclude the unfair tests, and you account for publication bias, you find, in all homeopathy trials overall, that homeopathy does no better than placebos.

If all that homeopaths did was to push harmless placebos in situations where a placebo was the best choice, that might not matter. But having fraudulently established their credentials as healers, they abuse this power in horribly dangerous ways:

It’s routine marketing practice for homeopaths to denigrate mainstream medicine. There’s a simple commercial reason for this: survey data show that a disappointing experience with mainstream medicine is almost the only factor that regularly correlates with choosing alternative therapies. That’s an explanation, but not an excuse. And this is not just talking medicine down. One study found that more than half of all the homeopaths approached advised patients against the MMR vaccine for their children, acting irresponsibly on what will quite probably come to be known as the media’s MMR hoax.
How did the alternative therapy world deal with this concerning finding, that so many among them were quietly undermining the vaccination schedule? Prince Charles’s office tried to have the lead researcher sacked.
A BBC Newsnight investigation found that almost all the homeopaths approached recommended ineffective homeopathic pills to protect against malaria, and advised against medical malaria prophylactics, while not even giving basic advice on bite prevention. Very holistic. Very “complementary”. Any action against the homeopaths concerned? None.
And in the extreme, when they’re not undermining public-health campaigns and leaving their patients exposed to fatal diseases, homeopaths who are not medically qualified can miss fatal diagnoses, or actively disregard them, telling their patients grandly to stop their inhalers, and throw away their heart pills. The Society of Homeopaths is holding a symposium on the treatment of Aids, featuring the work of Peter Chappell, a man who claims to have found a homeopathic solution to the epidemic. We reinforce all of this by collectively humouring homeopaths’ healer fantasies.

At the Cinerama

I’m at the Cinerama in Seattle, waiting for the 9:50am showing of “Beowulf”. It’s the first time I’ve been here, and the first time in years that I’ve been in a “full-sized” movie theatre. I’d forgotten what it was like. Fake stars in the ceiling, a huge stage curtain which has just parted to reveal what must have seemed a huge screen… before the era of iMax.
The trailers have just started. There are just 12 people in this cavernous space. Time to watch…
UPDATE: I enjoyed the film; I’d probably rate it seven out of ten. You have to see it on a big screen – iMax or Cinerama – or you’ll lose most of the grand sweep of the action. On the other hand, I don’t mind seeing it in 2-D rather than 3-D; it was quite vivid and immersive enough for me. It’s rated PG-13, but that feels a bit of a stretch. The “swiving”, ribaldry and nudity are just fine, but the violence is very graphic, intense, relentless, and hyper-realistic.
Yes, Angelina Jolie is gorgeously, unabashedly naked. OK, so they smoothed off her nipples, and gold-plated her from the neck down, but so what. And the 30 foot flagellum works beautifully.
I read a few reviews of the movie yesterday, and none of them picked up on what seemed to me an obvious angle. This is a film designed to look like a videogame. The visual realism of the latest PS3 and XBox360 games is approaching that of film, but it still has a way to go… so now film is starting to bridge the gap from the other direction.

reCAPTCHA

Here’s a really cool idea: reCAPTCHA. It’s a system which “takes scanned images from actual books, with which optical character recognition software are struggling, and uses them as the source material for CAPTCHA’s.” So when you’re proving that you’re not a robot to yet another web site (something which happens 60 million times a day, apparently), you could be helping to digitize old books.

Oh, the joy of it!

Stephen Fry captures the essence of the iPhone:

In the end the iPhone is like some glorious early-60s sports car. Not as practical, reliable, economical, sensible or roomy as a family saloon but oh, the joy. The jouissance as Roland Barthes liked to say. What it does, it does supremely well, that what it does not do seems laughably irrelevant.
The iPhone is a digital experience in the literal sense of the word. The user’s digits roam, stroke, tweak, tweeze, pinch, probe, slide, swipe and tap across the glass screen forging a relationship with the device that is like no other.
“But I don’t want to ‘forge a relationship’, I just want to get the job done,” you say? Well then, you know what? Don’t buy one. And stop reading this. You’re only doing so in the first place to lend fuel to your snorts and puffs of rage. Allow us our pleasures.

(If you haven’t bookmarked his blog, do it now. You will not be disappointed.)

Why "the new atheists" are important

Andrew Sullivan just posted a lengthy quotation from Burke. Sully obviously intended it to support his case for Obama’s candidacy, but to me it seemed an excellent argument for the coming together of “the new atheists” at this moment of history. (My emphasis.)

Whilst men are linked together, they easily and speedily communicate the alarm of any evil design. They are enabled to fathom it with common counsel, and to oppose it with united strength. Whereas, when they lie dispersed, without concert, order, or discipline, communication is uncertain, counsel difficult, and resistance impracticable. Where men are not acquainted with each other’s principles, nor experienced in each other’s talents, nor at all practised in their mutual habitudes and dispositions by joint efforts in business; no personal confidence, no friendship, no common interest, subsisting among them; it is evidently impossible that they can act a public part with uniformity, perseverance, or efficacy… When bad men combine, the good must associate; else they will fall, one by one, an unpitied sacrifice in a contemptible struggle.

In a world in which the politics of intolerance and violence is increasingly fuelled by fundamentalist religion, the non-religious among us (atheists, humanists, “brights”, freethinkers, agnostics, et cetera) need to stand together for reason and tolerance and against superstition and bigotry. And we are not, in general, as organized and obedient as church- and mosque-goers, and so it takes a lot of energy and passion to rouse us out of our comfortable seats. Those who disagree with us may call this intemperate, strident, or angry; ignore them, because this is about organizing ourselves, not selling our ideas.

What do they mean, "once"?

From today’s Seattle Times:

Yellowstone National Park, once the site of a giant volcano, has begun swelling up, possibly because molten rock is accumulating beneath the surface, scientists report….[T]he flow of the ancient Yellowstone crater has been moving upward almost 3 inches per year for the past three years… more than three times faster than ever observed since such measurements began in 1923, the researchers said.

There’s nothing “once” about the Yellowstone Caldera, any more than there is about Mount St. Helens. Neither is classified as extinct.

The Golden Compass?

In this month’s Atlantic, there’s a piece by Hanna Rosin called How Hollywood Saved God. In it she describes the making of the film of “The Golden Compass”, based on the first book of Philip Pullman’s famous trilogy. I loved the novels, and like many other fans I was worried about how New Line Cinema would treat the strong anti-religious themes of the books. Sadly, it appears that they have eviscerated the story, eliminating religious references and transforming the Magisterium into a cross between the Third Reich and George Lucas’s Evil Empire.
I can’t say that this was unexpected. Nevertheless, I had consoled myself with the thought that at least the films would be a ‘gateway drug’, taking advantage of the Potter-fuelled enthusiasm for children’s literature to get people of all ages reading Pullman’s novels. I hadn’t taken account of the pusillanimous nature of American publishers. Here’s Rosin; the emphasis is mine:

In The Amber Spyglass, a former nun turned physicist guides Lyra to her destiny using clues from the I Ching. The physicist divines that she should tell Lyra the story of when she was 12 years old at a birthday party and a boy “took a bit of marzipan and he just gently put it in my mouth,” and she fell in love.
This simple story sets off salvation. When she hears it, Lyra “felt something strange happen to her body. She felt a stirring at the roots of her hair: she found herself breathing faster.” (At least that’s what she felt in the British edition; the American version leaves these lines out.)

Aargh! What else have they left out or bowdlerized? Sometimes this totally screwed-up American attitude towards sexuality just makes me want to spit! I guess it’s time to place an order with Amazon.co.uk for a set of the original editions, just like I had to do with the early Harry Potter books.
I’m still looking forward to seeing the film: I hear that Nicole Kidman’s performance is almost perfect. I just know that when I’m sitting there in the cinema, I’ll be thinking about a slightly different story from most of the rest of the audience…

Antony Flew: exit, accompanied by ghost [UPDATED]

Over the years I’ve posted a number of pieces about the philosopher Antony Flew, and his flirtations with theism. Back in May I wrote (under the heading The longest running soap opera in the philosophy of religion) that:

You can now pre-order There Is a God: How the World’s Most Notorious Atheist Changed His Mind, authored by Antony Flew and Roy Abraham Varghese. It’s scheduled to be published in November, 2007.

Well, it’s now November, and the notorious book has been published. And in today’s New York Times Magazine, Mark Oppenheimer has pulled together the whole story in a piece entitled The Turning of an Atheist. It’s a rather sad tale of an old man in his dotage, allowing himself to be exploited by others, to the point where he allowed his name to be put to a book which he didn’t even write:

In August, I visited Flew in Reading…. I visited on two consecutive days, and each day Annis, Flew’s wife of 55 years, served me a glass of water and left me in the sitting room to ask her husband a series of tough, indeed rather cruel, questions.
In “There Is a God,” Flew quotes extensively from a conversation he had with Leftow, a professor at Oxford. So I asked Flew, “Do you know Brian Leftow?”
“No,” he said. “I don’t think I do.”
“Do you know the work of the philosopher John Leslie?” Leslie is discussed extensively in the book.
Flew paused, seeming unsure. “I think he’s quite good.” But he said he did not remember the specifics of Leslie’s work.
“Have you ever run across the philosopher Paul Davies?” In his book, Flew calls Paul Davies “arguably the most influential contemporary expositor of modern science.”
“I’m afraid this is a spectacle of my not remembering!”
He said this with a laugh…. But he forgot more than names. He didn’t remember talking with Paul Kurtz about his introduction to “God and Philosophy” just two years ago. There were words in his book, like “abiogenesis,” that now he could not define. When I asked about Gary Habermas, who told me that he and Flew had been friends for 22 years and exchanged “dozens” of letters, Flew said, “He and I met at a debate, I think.”… And he seemed generally uninterested in the content of his book — he spent far more time talking about the dangers of unchecked Muslim immigration and his embrace of the anti-E.U. United Kingdom Independence Party.
As he himself conceded, he had not written his book.
“This is really Roy’s doing,” he said, before I had even figured out a polite way to ask. “He showed it to me, and I said O.K. I’m too old for this kind of work!”

What a pity.
UPDATE: Richard Carrier has a fairly complete account of the background to, and authorship of, that bloody book. As Oppenheimer reported, Flew admitted that he didn’t write a word of it. Digging further, Carrier reveals that even the ghost had a ghost:

In my opinion the book’s arguments are so fallacious and cheaply composed I doubt Flew would have signed off on it in sound mind, and Oppenheimer comes to much the same conclusion. It seems Flew simply trusted Varghese and didn’t even read the book being published in his name. And even if he had, he is clearly incapable now of even remembering what it said. The book’s actual author turns out to be an evangelical preacher named Bob Hostetler (who has also written several books with Josh McDowell), with considerable assistance from this book’s co-author, evangelical promoter and businessman Roy Abraham Varghese.
However, I don’t completely believe the story they told Oppenheimer. The style of the chapters attributed to Flew differs so much from the portions explicitly written by Varghese (such as a lengthy preface), that I suspect Hostetler was responsible for much more than the publisher claims. Whether that’s so or not, this is a hack Christian tract, not formal or competent philosophy, nor anything from the mind of Antony Flew.

And that’s the thing that really bothers me. Unlike Carrier, I actually think that Flew was ((Tense deliberately chosen.)) a genuinely interesting philosopher, and I’m happy to have some of his books on my shelf. But in years to come, when all this tawdry mess is forgotten, Flew’s bibliography will include this ghastly little book which contains none of his ideas and none of his incisive prose. I’ve actually seen the book, on the shelves of the local chain bookstore. Varghese’s name appears in small print on the front of the book, but the spine and back flap simply identify Flew as the author.
Amazon.com has a “review” by the literary agent for the project, Steven Laube. He cites a press release from the publisher, responding to the NYT piece, which quotes Flew as saying:

“My name is on the book and it represents exactly my opinions. I would not have a book issued in my name that I do not 100 percent agree with. I needed someone to do the actual writing because I’m 84 and that was Roy Varghese’s role. The idea that someone manipulated me because I’m old is exactly wrong. I may be old but it is hard to manipulate me. This is my book and it represents my thinking.”

Well, he would say that, wouldn’t he? But the evidence is against him. I’ve read Flew’s work: he is (or was) the kind of nit-picking writer who couldn’t abide to leave any loose ends or contradictions. Here’s Richard Carrier again:

For example, the author pretending to be Flew claims there hasn’t been enough time for abiogenesis. The real Antony Flew knows this is false. In fact he conceded it was false to me in writing, and I quoted him on this fact in my online article. You would think that even a forger who wants the world to think this is Flew’s response to his own critics and that Flew remains a theist for sound reasons, would at least have his fictional Flew explain his retraction and re-retract it somehow. Instead, the author appears not even to know that Flew publicly retracted the claim that there hasn’t been enough time for abiogenesis. The author is also clearly unaware of the fact that Flew had radically changed earlier drafts of his preface to God & Philosophy to reflect exactly this change of position, even though this was also a matter of public record. Thus no explanation is given for his sudden (though apparently fictional) re-reversal.

Varghese and Hostetler have clearly put words into Flew’s mouth. I see no reason not to believe that they, or the publisher, have also supplied him with the text of this disclaimer.
To summarize: I do not doubt that Flew now holds some vaguely deistic belief. However, he has demonstrated such lapses in memory, confusion, contradiction, and loss of his distinctive critical style that it seems virtually certain that he had nothing to do with this book and is unaware of most of its contents. And that’s outrageous.
UPDATE 2: Well, here’s a strange twist: Flew as a possible defender of eugenics. Curiouser and curiouser.