Goldstein on Popper on falsifiability

In her contribution to The Edge, Rebecca Goldstein takes on the Popperian idea that scientific thinking inevitably involves falsifiability, and the false (but seductive) inferences that can follow:

Finally, I’ve come to think that identifying scientificality with falsifiability lets certain non-scientific theories off the hook, by saying that we should try to find good reasons to believe whether a theory is true or false only when that theory is called “science.” It allows believers to protect their pet theories by saying that they can’t be, and shouldn’t be, subject to falsification, just because they’re clearly not scientific theories. Take the theory that there’s an omnipotent, omniscient, beneficent God. It may not be a scientific hypothesis, but it seems to me to be eminently falsifiable; in fact, it seems to have been amply falsified.   But because falsifiability is seen as demarcating the scientific, and since theism is so clearly not scientific, believers in religious ideologies get a free pass. The same is true for many political ideologies. The parity between scientific and nonscientific ideas is concealed by thinking that there’s a simple test that distinguishes science from nonscience, and that that test is falsifiability.

"What have you changed your mind about?"

Every year, John Brockman and the folks at The Edge pose a big question. Their Annual Question for 2008 is a classic:

When thinking changes your mind, that’s philosophy.
When God changes your mind, that’s faith.
When facts change your mind, that’s science.
WHAT HAVE YOU CHANGED YOUR MIND ABOUT? WHY?

Science is based on evidence. What happens when the data change? How have scientific findings or arguments changed your mind?”

I’m going to have to think a bit before giving my own answer, but I can’t wait to read the responses from everyone from (alphabetically) Allan Alda to Richard Wrangham. If I have one concern, it is that there may be too many contributions this year. I’d prefer quality over quantity. We’ll see.
UPDATE: Having read them all (so far – there are new writings and corrections, arriving all the time), I have to say that there are some excellent pieces, together with a fair number that shouldn’t really have made the cut. Some writers – especially “Edge newbies” – don’t really address the question. Never mind. Over at Cosmic Variance, Sean Carroll has put together a good summary of the more interesting offerings.

Happy New Year '08 Seattle

Yesterday eveningFireworks from the Space Needle. I made my way to Jon and Laura’s party, up on Capitol Hill, and there was good conversation accompanied by copious libations. Just before midnight we took glasses and a couple of bottles of champagne up on to the roof of their apartment block. I should have brought a decent camera and tripod, but I had to make do with my iPhone to capture the skyline and the fireworks on the Space Needle. Pictures here.
And yes, the fireworks stopped after a few seconds due to “a computer glitch”. ((There’s widespread speculation about the operating system involved…)) We headed back down to the apartment, and watched the delayed – and manually controlled – display from indoors. The Quantum Pontiff has a great picture of the fireworks on his blog.

New Years iPhone bug

As I was heading out to a New Years party this evening, I checked the time on my iPhone. Here’s what I saw:
iPhone clock bug
(Click to see full-size.)
The local time in Seattle was 8:45 PM on December 31, 2007. In London and Mumbai it was already January 1, 2008… or it should have been!

Tommy has a sister!

I just heard from Massachusetts: my daughter, Katherine, has had a baby girl. More details anon. (Meanwhile here are some pictures of Tommy and a – very pregnant – Katherine!)
UPDATE: Victoria Elizabeth (“Torri“) Gallagher, 9 lbs. 8oz. Mother and baby doing fine. Here’s the first photograph, from Mark’s cellphone:
First photo, from Mark’s cellphone
Mark’s posted some more pictures, here.

The truth about Linux

Jaron Lanier nails it:

Some of the youngest, brightest minds have been trapped in a 1970s intellectual framework because they are hypnotized into accepting old software designs as if they were facts of nature. Linux is a superbly polished copy of an antique, shinier than the original, perhaps, but still defined by it.

However the prevailing cult of OSS is so dominant that even the most obviously proprietary projects have to pretend to be open source. (The fact that all of the individuals with “commit” privileges happen to work for a single company is purely coincidental.) And try telling any OSS enthusiast that they ought to be “open” to a world with multiple open source operating systems…
Anyway, by picking out the most provocative paragraph, I’m doing an injustice to Jaron. It really is an interesting piece, especially what it has to say about the importance of speciation. Check it out.

More evidence that it's time to ban ALL faith-based schools in the UK

From Stephen Law:

According to today’s Observer (p5), the Catholic Bishop of Lancaster, Patrick O’Donoghue (illustrated), has said in a document written for schools in his diocese that:
“Under no circumstances should any outside authority or agency that is not fully qualified to speak on behalf of the Catholic Church ever be allowed to speak to pupils or individuals on sexual or any other matter involving faith and morals”
O’Donoghue also called for any books containing polemics against the Catholic Church to be removed from school libraries.

Clearly the Catholic Church doesn’t want children that it’s indoctrinating teaching to learn about the use of condoms to reduce the risk of STDs. Nor should they be allowed to see any criticisms of ridiculous medieval ideas like the Pope’s plans to set up exorcism squads. ((Let’s see: which is the more pressing problem in the world today – HIV/AIDS or demonic possession?))

The Airport Security Follies

Patrick “Ask the Pilot” Smith blasts the stupidity of the charade of airport security:

The truth is, regardless of how many pointy tools and shampoo bottles we confiscate, there shall remain an unlimited number of ways to smuggle dangerous items onto a plane. The precise shape, form and substance of those items is irrelevant. We are not fighting materials, we are fighting the imagination and cleverness of the would-be saboteur.
Thus, what most people fail to grasp is that the nuts and bolts of keeping terrorists away from planes is not really the job of airport security at all. Rather, it’s the job of government agencies and law enforcement. It’s not very glamorous, but the grunt work of hunting down terrorists takes place far off stage, relying on the diligent work of cops, spies and intelligence officers. Air crimes need to be stopped at the planning stages. By the time a terrorist gets to the airport, chances are it’s too late.

And meanwhile the travelling sheep line up and obediently remove their shoes, without so much as a bleat…

CFI London

Shucks. I wish I could be in England in mid-January, so I could attend the first conference being organized by the Center for Inquiry in London. The theme is “Secularism in the Multicultural Society: The Civil Limits of Tolerance.” The roster of speakers is impressive: Paul Kurtz, Julian Baggini, Stephen Law, Polly Toynbee, Nigel Warburton ((Co-host of the excellent Philosophy Bites podcast.)) and others.

Music of 2007

2007 turned out to be a very good year for new music – new to me, at any rate. I discovered several artists that I had inexplicably overlooked, picked up excellent new albums from some of my long-time favourites, and encountered some great new talent. So let’s take a look.
The year started and ended with offerings from one of my greatest favourites, Faithless. In January there was a new album, “To All New Arrivals”, and in December an excellent single, “A Kind of Peace”. Along the way I bought the “Renaissance DJ Set”, a triple CD of early works and influential sources. (Among the latter was a track by LSK, which prompted me to seek out their – one and only – eponymous CD.)
Steven Wilson’s Porcupine Tree is right up there with Faithless, and this year we got the outstanding “Fear of a Blank Planet” and an outtakes collection “Nil Recurring”. I added several items from Wilson’s circle of friends: “Blackfield II”, a live collection by John Wesley (who plays second guitar with PT on tour), and “My Hotel Year” by Tim Bowness. Next year we’re promised a new no-man album, which I’m awaiting eagerly.
I’ve got to stop comparing every Radiohead album with “OK Computer”, although I guess that’s the price they have to pay for coming up with one of the greatest recordings of all time. “In Rainbows” is really, really good, and I was happy to pay $10 for the “name your price” download.
The rediscovery of the year was street pianist Jonny Hahn, whom I blogged about in March. I bought several of his CDs, including “Collage” and “Lost in the Inzone”. His music reminds me of the soundtrack to the movie “Once”, which was also a great discovery.
I filled in gaps in my collection with music from the 60s to the 90s. Neil Young‘s “Live at Massey Hall”, The Who‘s “Endless Wire”, “Jupiter’s Darling” by Heart, the Oasis collection “Stop the Clocks”, “London Calling” by the Clash, The Cure‘s “Mixed Up”, “Blues” by Jimi Hendrix, and “The Blue Thumb Recordings” by Arthur Lee’s Love. iTunes came up trumps by unearthing “New Dark Times”, the 1996 album by Sunscreem. Some deep web spelunking yielded a copy of Robert Hunter‘s “Flight of the Marie Helena”. And I almost forgot the first acquisition of the New Year: U2‘s “U218”.
But as I mentioned, 2007 was a great year for discovering new music. Four women head the list: Regina Spektor, with her inspirational “Begin To Hope”, Kate Nash with the brutally honest punk poetry on “Made of Bricks”, Joanna Newson‘s indescribable “Ys”, and the comfortable intimacy of “One Cell in the Sea” by A Fine Frenzy (Alison Sudol). I also enjoyed “Songs From The Deep Forest” by Duke Special, and “Live at SoHo: The Good, The Bad & The Queen EP” by the unnamed band that Damon Albam of Blur has put together.
Then there were the artists that I had somehow overlooked. How about the Mekons? They’ve been around forever! How could I not know the Mekons? After seeing them in concert, I bought their latest CD, “Natural”, as well as the retrospective “Heaven and Hell.” Two other omissions that were finally corrected: the Polyphonic Spree, with “The Fragile Army”, and “Hats” by The Blue Nile.
And finally, the album of the year has to be “Arzachel: Collectors Edition” by Uriel. This will only make sense to a handful of people who appreciate the glorious insanity that was the English psychedelic music scene in 1969. I owned the original LP, then the Demon CD, and now this. Excuse me while I light a few joss sticks, put on the headphones, and turn out the lights….
No, really. The real album of the year is the glorious, bizarre, ethereal “The Butcher’s Ballroom” by the Swedish group Diablo Swing Orchestra. Wikipedia tries to pigeon-hole them as “avant-garde metal” or “symphonic metal”; perhaps “operatic jazz metal” will do. (And I do mean “operatic”.) Paul kept nagging me, and eventually I listened to all of the samples on the Amazon MP3 store and saw what he meant. Thanks, old friend. (And when are you going to finish writing that review?)