"Don't even think about a smooth landing"

We have penetrated the outer ring of clouds of the northwest sector of Hanna. The turbulence is annoying and the clouds are thick but not wet (wet will come in a few minutes). The forward shields are up (anti-ice systems ON) which automatically turns on the engine igniters. Seventy miles ago I told the lead flight attendant to batten down the hatches and get ready for a goat rodeo. The weather radar is on the 120 mile range and the returns are in the category of you got to be kidding me.

Thus begins the latest posting at Flight Level 390, one of my favourite pilot blogs. (Another is Aviatrix.) This account of flying into PHL through the maelstrom of tropical storm Hanna is a must-read….

Shamelessly clueless

Another day, another blooper. Mudflats notes Sarah Palin’s clueless gaffe when she was asked about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The important thing is not what she said, but how she handled the question:

But notice that Palin didn’t dodge the question. She didn’t panic and say she’d need to check with someone, or that she needed more information, or skirt around it. She actually felt confident enough to answer, and lay it all out there – and be completely wrong. She had no clue.

At least we now know that McCain, who admitted he didn’t really know much about the economy, decided to balance the ticket by choosing a running mate who doesn’t know ANYthing.

No wonder the McCain team wants to keep her away from real journalists…

At White River Amphitheatre for Santana

We’re at the White River Amphitheatre for the Santana concert. We did the “green” thing by parking in Auburn and taking the (9 mile) shuttle bus. It’s now 6:25, the concert is scheduled to start at 7, and we’re at the end of a long line that is only just starting to move. This is easily the most incompetently disorganized concert facility I’ve ever been to. I hope the show is better than the venue.
Update: seated and ready to go by 7:15. Opening act was Salvador Santana Band. 6 members: drums, bass, keyboards, sax/vocals, guitar, and a total loser who fancied himself as a rapper and keyboards player. He had no sense of rhythm in either role. If they’d dumped him, the remaining five guys would have made a great act – tight rhythm, good vocals, inventive solos. Oh well….
And now for Santana!
[…]
Brilliant. A simply wonderful show.

Origin of the specious

In the New Humanist, A. C. Grayling carves up “Dissent over Descent”, the new book on Intelligent Design by the ludicrous Steve Fuller. Money quote:

Fuller has written about Popper; he seems to forget Popper’s killer point, namely, a theory that explains everything explains nothing. ID is such a theory; everything is consistent with it, nothing disproves it. The idea that there is such a thing as a deity behaves logically as a contradiction does unsurprisingly, because the idea is indeed contradictory: anything whatever follows from it. But presumably this is okay for Fuller because he was educated by Jesuits.

"Girls warned playing didgeridoo could cause infertility"

From AFP:

The Victorian Aboriginal Education Association said instructing girls on how to play the [didgeridoo] was an extreme cultural indiscretion and has called for the book to be pulped.

OK, I can believe that it might be a “cultural indiscretion”, whatever that means. No reason not to do it, of course – and no reason to pulp the book. I bump into cultural indiscretions all the time, most recently from the RNC in MSP.
But then it gets really silly. According to the association’s general manager Mark Rose:

“We know very clearly that there’s a range of consequences for a female touching a didgeridoo — infertility would be the start of it, ranging to other consequences,” he said, adding: “I won’t even let my daughter touch one.”

WTF?
Someone should ask Mr. Rose to explain exactly what he means. Infertility is pretty well understood: which parts of a female’s reproductive functioning would be affected by touching a didgeridoo, and how? What would the causal mechanism be? How would the “consequences” be manifested – would they show up on an X-ray or ultrasound, for instance, or would it be necessary to test hormone levels?
Rose describes it as “cultural ignorance”. It seems that the real ignorance shown here is his own superstitious ignorance of science and medicine. And I refuse to play the patronizing multicultural game of assuming that Aboriginals are incapable of living in a scientifically informed culture, and that their mythologies are so fragile that we must all pretend that they correspond to reality.

On "Wisely Using Your Advantage"

Enough politics: let’s talk about probability. The Quantum Pontiff has a delightful piece up about “Gambler’s ruin”:

Gambler’s ruin is one of my favorite basic probability exercises… Suppose you have access to a game in which you have a slight advantage in winning… [W]hat is your probability of ruin, given a starting bankroll of D dollars, an advantage of p, and a target of T dollars?

The math isn’t too hard, but the results are surprising. Check it out.

"Felon-presumptive Governor Palin"

Tom at The Inverse Square Blog rips into Palin. Money quote:

I said that Miss Palin is being used.  The passive voice is a deceiver.  Sarah Palin is using her daughter as cynically as I have ever witnessed anyone turn their children to their own ends.  John McCain is taking advantage as best he can of a pregnant teenager to advance his ambition.  The McCain campaign and the leaders of the Republican Party are asking — demanding, as far as anyone can tell — that Bristol Palin suspend whatever hope for privacy she may have in order to provide her mother with the cover she needs.

I do not have words to describe how I feel about women and men that would so put themselves and their ambitions, their lust for power before that of a young woman — a girl — who had done nothing, not one thing, to place herself in the way of such a train wreck.

Here’s James Fallows’ assessment of this aspect of the Palin speech:

Nothing off limits. Barack Obama has used his family as a prop from time to time — most recently, bringing the charming girls onto the stage at the end of his convention speech. That’s life in politics; everybody does it to some degree.Very few politicians do it as all-out as Sarah Palin just did, from citing the disabilities of her youngest child as part of her resume to including the shotgun groom of her elder daughter. I can’t recall any spectacle comparable to Baby Trig being passed from Cindy McCain, to Trig’s 7-year-old sister, to Palin herself when she ended the speech. Her husband looks charming, I have to say. From this point on it will be hard for her to declare anything about her personal or famiy life out-of-bounds.