Last Friday, I checked the Seattle weather forecast to see what the prospects for the weekend were. Morning fog, cloudy skies, damp, low 40s. Sigh. It was going to be typical Seattle winter, just as I’d been promised when I moved here.
Except that it wasn’t. On Saturday the fog and most of the clouds disappeared by lunchtime and it turned into a beautiful day. So when Sunday dawned with thick fog, we crossed our fingers, and by mid-morning things were looking brighter.


Even though the Seattle area was cloud-free, we could still see bands of fog draped over the shores of Bainbridge Island and the slopes of the Olympics. But then even these began to burn off, and to my amazement Mount Rainier loomed out of the haze, 50 miles to the south.
In addition to the numerous freighters anchored in Puget Sound (waiting to load at the grain elevator) there were a couple of bonuses for the transport geek in me: an Amtrak train from Vancouver approaching the city from the north, and the prototype Boeing 777F turning finals towards Boeing Field.
So no, not all Seattle winter days are grey and wet. ((We’ve got about a week of nice weather ahead of us.)) But don’t bet against it….
"They're not simply war criminals; they're fools."
British MP Gerald Kaufman, speaking in Parliament:
(Via Juan Cole.)
Cultural Christianity
The British writer Douglas Murray contributed an eloquent essay to The Spectator on how he became an atheist. The title – deliberately provocative, I suspect, in these times of confusion over the role of Muslim culture and law in Britain – was “Studying Islam has made me an atheist”.
Gradually, scepticism of the claims made by one religion was joined by scepticism of all such claims. Incredulity that anybody thought an archangel dictated a book to Mohammed produced a strange contradiction. I found myself still clinging to belief in Christianity. I was trying to believe — though rarely arguing — ‘Well, your guy didn’t hear voices: but I know a man who did.’ This last, shortest and sharpest, phase pulled down the whole thing. In the end Mohammed made me an atheist.
What I found particularly interesting was his discussion of the concept of “cultural Christianity”.
My final fear was one which I think a lot of Christians in this country feel, particularly as they see Islam re-emerging and gaining adherents in spite (or perhaps because) of its intransigence and intractability. It is, I suppose, a sense of cultural abandonment. We know how much of what we enjoy and relish comes through Christianity. Can we really go on without it? Doesn’t it leave our building without foundations? Slowly I discover that it doesn’t. I still can’t pass a country church or cathedral without going in. The texts are still essential to me. They are just (and ‘just’ hardly does the job here) no more divine than Shakespeare.
The question of how, without believing it, we transmit the good of our historical faith to another generation is certainly problematic. Perhaps like many Jewish people who rejoice in their identity but don’t believe in God we could be better — and franker — at being cultural Christians.
This all seems very reasonable. And many atheists are happy to be “cultural Christians” – Richard Dawkins has often written of how he cheerfully celebrates Christmas. And I know many Jewish atheists, who don’t seem to get involved in public debates about whether their atheism is compatible with their Judaism. So what’s the problem?
It’s the Christians. Or, rather, the enthusiastic Christian believers who see the arcane but beautiful texts, rituals, and music as barriers to creating the kind of religious communities that they want. When I, like Douglas Murray, go into a wonderful old English country church, I delight in the experience right up to the moment that the service starts. And then the beautiful, timeless space is filled with banal language and trite (and ephemeral) music.
I have no problem with believers indulging in their rituals, ancient or modern. Chacun à son goût, and all that. But most of them seem actively opposed to the concept of “cultural Christianity”: they insist that if we are to enjoy the Christian heritage of England, we should do so on their terms. The rest of us are merely day-trippers, to be hit up for cash and then pushed out of the way when they want to exercise their “authentic” Christianity.
For the most part, I can ignore the enthusiasts and enjoy the culture. But it’s annoying to be treated as a tourist in your own country.
Getting out of the book
Via PZ, a nice parable. Free-thinking beats any one book (especially contradictory mashups of bronze age myths).
One of the commenters on the PZ thread recommended this TED piece by Jonathan Haidt.
Visualizing "lots and lots"
Visualizing huge numbers can be very difficult. People regularly talk about millions of miles, billions of bytes, or trillions of dollars, yet it’s still hard to grasp just how much a “billion” really is. The MegaPenny Project aims to help by taking one small everyday item, the U.S. penny, and building on that to answer the question: “What would a billion (or a trillion) pennies look like?”
The MegaPenny Project, tip of the hat to the Bad Astronomer.
7 Things You May (or May Not) Know About Me
Steve tagged me with the “7 Things You May (or May Not) Know About Me” meme. The rules:
- Link to your original tagger(s) and list these rules in your post.
- Share seven facts about yourself in the post.
- Tag seven people at the end of your post by leaving their names and the links to their blogs.
- Let them know they’ve been tagged.
Like Steve, I’ve blogged for years, and I’m not sure how many little-known personal facts I can dig up. And there’s a further problem: two years ago (almost exactly) I was tagged with the “5 things” meme. I don’t want to repeat myself, so I’ll have to think up some new things. Here goes:
- I’m addicted to the British glucose-based drink Lucozade. When I was about six, I was hospitalized with severe whooping cough, and for some time Lucozade was the only thing I could keep down. I prefer it at room temperature, just as it was in hospital.
- You never forget that ghostly blue light. During the summer of 1971, I had a job in the Theoretical Physics group at AERE Harwell. My “office” was a prefabricated shed, erected in the old aircraft hangar that housed the LIDO “swimming pool” reactor. When I worked late (which I did quite often, the only illumination was my desk lamp and the blue glow from the ÄŒerenkov radiation. (And yes, there were life preservers hanging everywhere, just in case someone fell in.)
- If it were not for a British TV docu-drama, I would probably not be living in the US today. Back in 1980 I had decided to boost my income by taking a programming job with a petrochemical company in Saudi Arabia. It was a typical expat deal: I was going to live in a company hostel, with my (tax-free) salary paid into a numbered Swiss bank account, and meeting my family for vacations twice a year in Greece or Cyprus. But a few days before I was due to leave, the film Death of a Princess was shown on ATV. Immediately anyone with a British passport became persona non grata in Saudi Arabia. When it became clear that the ban was likely to last for a while, I started looking for alternative jobs, and was recruited by Raytheon Data Systems in Massachusetts.
- Why am I a Mac user? During 1996 there were rumours that Sun was trying to buy Apple. While any talk of acquisition soon fizzled, contact continued. For most of that year, I was part of a secret team working to integrate the Sun and Apple technology portfolios. Sun was to give up making desktop computers, Apple would abandon its minuscule server business, Solaris would be used as the basis for OS X, and sales and channel strategies would be coordinated. I spent much of my time that year at Apple, working on the networking aspects of the deal. It all unravelled when Steve Jobs returned to Apple at the beginning of 1997; with the NeXT OS technology he had no need for Solaris. Shortly afterwards, Eric Schmidt left Sun to join Novell, before moving to Google a few years later. All I got was a T-shirt, and a PowerBook – but that was enough.
- Out of the mouths of babes and… In 1982 I was working for Raytheon Data Systems (RDS), a company whose main business was supplying IBM-compatible terminal systems to airlines. One day I was invited to join a meeting that included various VPs and corporate lawyers from IBM and RDS, who were haggling over the licensing terms for an IBM specification. After several hours of fruitless discussion, I said, “Oh, come on. Just give us the spec and we’ll implement it.” All the IBM lawyers promptly got in a huddle. “Are you formally requesting that we turn over the document to you?” they asked. “Well, yes,” I replied, rather surprised. “In that case, we are required by the terms of our consent decree to comply,” they said. And they did. Apparently nobody had thought to simply ask for it.
- I have been to Buckingham Palace once – for my mother’s OBE investiture. Unfortunately I didn’t take a camera. (This was before digital photography and camera phones.)
- Me and Ronnie. [Reprinted from an entry in my Sun blog, dated June 11, 2004] While everybody seems to be waxing lyrical (or apoplectic) about Ronald Reagan (and I did like Steve Bell’s cartoon in the Guardian), I was reminded of a personal piece of synchronicity. We had just moved from the UK to the USA (for “just a few years,” we thought – hah!), and it was my first day on the job, at Raytheon Data Systems in Mansfield, Massachusetts. I was joining the team to work on the OS for Raytheon’s next generation minicomputer. It was March 30, 1981, and around 2:30pm, right in the middle of a meeting to get to know the rest of the team, everything stopped: Reagan had just been shot. From my perspective, as an outsider who viewed America as a pathologically gun-obsessed culture, it was an odd moment… what had I let myself in for?
So that’s seven more-or-less new things about me. Now I have to tag seven people. That’s tough. I tagged several people the last time around, and so this time I’m going to pass. Sorry.
Crossroads
Here’s a nice picture from my flight home on Saturday:
The lines are shadows cast by contrails at our level (FL340, or 34,000 ft.) onto the smooth layer of low-level clouds. I took this at 9:46am CST, so I was probably flying over Wisconsin or Iowa, en route to Denver.
Lots more pictures here.
40 years ago, more or less: my first application
As the calendar clicks around, I’m reminded of an odd anniversary. Roughly 40 years ago – maybe late 1968, perhaps early 1969 – I wrote my first serious piece of software: a real application, used by real people, and constructed as part of my paid employment. I thought it might be worth revisiting that event.
The first thing you have to understand is that I’d had no computer-related education at all. The closest I came at the Royal Grammar School, High Wycombe, was an after-school seminar in the School Library, when somebody delivered a talk on computers. I’ve forgotten the content of the presentation completely; I only remember that the speaker passed around a core memory module for us to look at. (Hands up those who don’t know what “core memory” is, or how it works.) In the spring of 1968 I applied to Essex University to read Economics, and that summer I took GCE A Levels in Economics, Maths (A+S), and Physics. However I had already decided that it would be useful to spend what is now termed a “gap year” before going to university, in order to get some experience of the real world. Fortune (or nepotism) was in my favor, and I was accepted at the UKAEA Harwell to spend a year as a “Mathematics Assistant”.
I started in September 1968, and lived in a hostel (a barracks, really) in Abingdon. I was working for the Programmes Anaysis Unit (PAU), a group that was trying to understand the economic impact of government-sponsored research and development initiatives. We were interested in how quickly innovation spread through a marketplace, and what the return on investment looked like. I was the only assistant in a team of a couple of dozen eminent scientists and economists. They understood the policy issues, and most understood the mathematics. The challenge was gathering the data and interpreting it.
I started out on issues related to ROI. The models typically involved calculating the year-by-year impact of an investment, with each annual contribution discounted due to monetary deflation and substitution. I worked up a family of models of increasing complexity; for each one, I planned to accumulate the discounted annual contributions until the marginal return was less than some epsilon. But how to run them?
I was put in charge of the department’s Wang Programmable Calculator. The programming model was similar to more recent programmable calculators from TI and HP. The program memory essentially stored keystrokes, which were executed just as if you’d pressed them. Keystroke steps were numbered, and there were conditional and unconditional branch operations. For the Wang, the “program memory” was a pre-scored card, from which “chads” were punched out with a stylus; the card was then “read” in a device that looked like a small toaster. The output display used Nixie tubes…
I programmed up my first model. It ran to completion in 5 minutes. My “second order” model took 30 minutes to finish. The “third order” model ran for four hours. When the “fourth order” model had not converged after an overnight run, I knew that I needed some better technology. My team leader, a physicist who had never recovered from the fleshpots of Cairo during the 8th Army campaign of 1942, directed me to the computing centre. There a rather startled young man with a huge red beard thrust a copy of “McCracken on Fortran” into my hand, created an account for me on the IBM 360/65, and showed me where the card punches were. Two days later, I’d completed all of the ROI calculations, and I was hooked.
In those first programs I used the 360 as a glorified version of the Wang calculator. I didn’t have to manage data sets, or design complex algorithms, or do anything for output beyond printing a single number. But the next job was different. Several PAU teams were interested in how technologies were taken up by a marketplace, and then (as now) it was assumed that adoption tended to follow an S-curve. Today, curve-fitting is a standard feature of every maths library, but in 1968 we were making it up as we went along. Furthermore we weren’t simply throwing a best-fit curve through a bunch of points: we had a number of exogenous constraints that we had to respect.
One of my colleagues came up with a nice set of linear transformations for the primary equations (Sigmoid and Gompertz), which meant that I could vary one parameter (usually the asymptote, which was constrained anyway) and use a linear fit to generate the other values. I demonstrated experimentally that graphing the residual errors against the asymptotes had a single minimum, so I was able to use a simple bisection approach to find the best fit. Some of the data sets were too big to fit in memory, so I added a buffered input reader to stream the data from the disk (or was it a drum?).
My first version of the program simply output the parameters of the S curve and the residual errors. This was OK for the mathematicians, but unsatisfactory for the policy wonks. I made friends with the red-bearded guy in the computer centre (who would later be my lecturer at Essex University!), and discovered that the IBM 360/65 was equipped for COM, or Computer Output on Microfilm. I cut-and-pasted some code from the COM system documentation, and augmented my application with full graphical output, showing the original data points (or bucketed samples thereof) and the various s-curves that corresponded to the different constraints.
By this point, I was more or less lost to the PAU. While I kept doing minor tasks for them, I spent 80% of my time in the computer centre, and by the time I left in June, 1969, I was helping teams from all over Harwell with their applications. I’d also moved on from punched cards to a teletype-based RJE system, which was only one step away from being a real interactive system. (For that, I had to wait until I encountered the PDP-10 in 1970.)
Meanwhile my application was used for a number of years. When I returned to a different branch of Harwell in the summer of 1971, I was asked by my old team to make several small enhancements. Naturally, I looked at the code I had written, and was mortified at how primitive it was. But it was my first, and self-taught to boot, so I cut myself some slack and fixed it.
Three excellent additions for a freethinker's library
I’ve just finished reading three books on a common theme: losing one’s (Christian) religion and becoming an atheist. All three are excellent, but each approaches the topic from a very different perspective. I thought I might review them all together, and post the combined review on each book at Amazon. I don’t know if this is consistent with the Amazon review policy, but never mind.
The first book is Godless: How an Evangelical Preacher Became One of America’s Leading Atheists by Dan Barker. I was slightly put off by the subtitle: “How an evangelical preacher became one of America’s leading atheists.” After all, one of the key points about atheism – and one that we have to keep reminding theists about – is that atheism is not an organized body of belief, it’s no more a religion than “bald” is a hair colour. So how can anyone be a “leading atheist”? Who’s being led? However if one substitutes “prominent” or “influential” for “leading”, we can let that pass. And Barker is certainly influential: he’s co-president of the Freedom From Religion Foundation, which is one of the most active groups working to uphold the Constitutional prohibition on church-state entanglement, and seeking to counteract the negative image of atheism in this country.
The second book that I considered was William Lobdell’s Losing My Religion: How I Lost My Faith Reporting on Religion in America-and Found Unexpected Peace. Lobdell is an award-winning journalist who covered religion for the Los Angeles Times. After writing about many aspects of religion for many years, he finally decided to write about his own journey.
The last volume in this trilogy was Why I Became an Atheist: A Former Preacher Rejects Christianity, by John Loftus. Like Barker, Loftus was also an evangelical preacher, but although the arc of his experience was similar to Barker’s, the result is a very different kind of book.
Let me begin by saying that each of these books is really good, and deserves a place in the library of anyone who is interested in the contemporary debate between religion and atheism. I hesitate to rank them, or recommend one over another; nevertheless I find myself compelled to do so. Of the three, Lobdell’s “Losing My Religion” is the most essential, for two reasons. First, he is an excellent writer, and his prose is simply a delight to read. Secondly, he concentrates on his personal experience in a way that I haven’t encountered before in books by atheists. Both Loftus and Barker set out to tell their story and argue their case, albeit in different ways, and each draws on writers as diverse as Dennett, Wells, Price, Martin, Shermer, Carrier and Nielsen in setting forth their arguments. Lobdell just wants to recount his own story, and what he has learned from it. He’s not interested in converting anyone, or scoring debating points. As he writes,
“To borrow Buddha’s analogy, I’ve just spent eight years crossing a river in a raft of my own construction, and now I’m standing on a new shore. My raft was made not of dharma, like Buddhism’s, but of things I gathered along the way: knowledge, maturity, humility, critical thinking and the willingness to face the world as it is, and not how I wish it to be. I don’t know what the future holds in this new land. I don’t see myself crossing the river back to Christianity… [or] adopting a new religion. My disbelief in a personal God now seems cemented to my soul. Other kinds of spirituality seem equally improbable. Besides, I like my life on this unexplored shore.”
For Lobdell, the thing which provoked his crisis of faith was people: the yawning gulf between the ideals of a religion and the lives of those who practice and – especially – lead it. The horrific abuse of young people by Catholic priests, and the way it was covered up, refutes the claims of religion in many different ways. In particular, it challenges believers to justify theodicy (the “problem of evil”), as well as the Dostoievskian idea of religion as a bastion against the chaos of amorality. In contrast, for Barker and Loftus, the unravelling of their fundamentalist faiths was due to ideas: to the incoherence of religious dogma, and its incompatibility with science and reason.
Both Loftus and Barker were preachers. There are many distinct aspects to being a preacher: the performance artist, leading a collective act of worship; the scribe and teacher, explaining and interpreting the texts and practices of the faith; and the counsellor and confessor. All of these roles have roots in the shamanic and magical. As a believer, Barker was a performance artist, and he remains so in his newly found unbelief. He encourages the closeted skeptic, and fights fiercely for the rights of the non-religious. Loftus is a scribe: the apologist, the teacher. He was the defender of faith against its critics, and with the detailed knowledge that he acquired in this role, he has become the sharpest critic of religious apology.. Each of their books reflects the way that they interpreted the role of preacher.
Both Barker and Loftus seek to encourage those who seek affirmation of their skepticism or unbelief. Barker concentrates on the emotional, the social: “you are not alone”, “you are not a bad person”. Loftus focuses on the ideas, the dogma: the Bible is riddled with inconsistencies, the supposedly biographical accounts in the New Testament are demonstrably fictitious, the attempts by contemporary theologians to construct a coherent interpretation of the contradictory mess are failures, and so forth. If you have read some of the authorities that Loftus cites – Mackie, Martin, et al – I would still recommend his book, because he pulls all of the threads together in a compact and accessible manner. If you are unfamiliar with the literature, Loftus may be all you need. (Add Hitchens for spice, of course!)
I recommend all three books.
Reality bites
While religious delusion seems to be on the increase back in Blighty, here in the US things are trending – modestly – in the opposite direction:
the percentage of Americans who believe that religion can answer society’s problems is at an all-time low, with only 53 percent saying religion “can answer all or most of today’s problems.â€
[…]
Meanwhile, over the last several decades, the percentage of those who perceive religion as “largely old-fashioned and out of date†has been on a continuous rise. The latest poll found that 28 percent believe it’s old-fashioned.
But even so… 53 percent? That’s a dangerous level of delusion…
(Via Freethinker.