A brilliant "what if" from Juan Cole

Imagine if Bush was blessed with a modicum of foresight, and had told the truth about a war against Iraq back in 2002. In The Speech Bush Should have Given, Juan Cole describes what such a speech might have said – about the costs in dollars and lives, about the geopolitical issues, about the reasons. Money (ouch!) quote: “A war against Iraq will be expensive. It will cost you, the taxpayer, about $300 billion over five years. I know Wolfowitz is telling you Iraq’s oil revenues will pay for it all, but that’s ridiculous. Iraq only pumps about $10 billion a year worth of oil, and it’s going to need that just to run the new government we’re putting in. No, we’re going to have to pay for it, ourselves. I’m going to ask you for $25 billion, then $80 billion, then another $80 billion. And so on. I’m going to be back to you for money more often than that unemployed relative that you don’t like. The cost of the war is going to drive up my already massive budget deficits from about $370 billion to more like $450 billion a year. Just so you understand, I’m going to cut taxes on rich people at the same time that I fight this war. Then I’m going to borrow the money to fight it, and to pay for much of what the government does. And you and your children will be paying off that debt for decades.”

Dial 999 (or 911), then hop in the shower

I know that multiply-resistant pathogens are a significant risk in hospitals, but even so, this BBC story seems to go a bit far: “Patients should bring their own medical wipes and scrub up before coming to hospital to cut MRSA, say advisors. They should ask relatives to launder their clothes and make sure their visitors have washed themselves properly before entering the ward. The Patients Association’s 10-point code also advises patients to collect their own rubbish.”

I can see it now: “Dearie me – it looks like you’re having a heart attack. Why don’t you pop upstairs and have a quick shower, while I wash my hands, call an ambulance, and pack a few bin liners.”

Colour-blind, gender-blind

James Wolcott describes: “watching Senator Joe Lieberman […] drone his support for the nomination of Condi Rice as Secretary of Clueless, arguing that we should celebrate the breakthrough confirmation of an African-American woman for such a powerful post, even though her being African-American and a woman were irrelevant to her qualifications. Then why bring it up? I suppose it’s progress of a sort when a duplicitous incompetent can be promoted regardless of race or gender […] but it ought to make for a muted celebration.” Indeed.

(Via Jon, who manages to be amused by it – no small achievement.)

On being a True Believer…

James Lileks, on how owning the latest gear from Apple makes you… well, better: cool, more hip, just a superior kind of human being. But as he admits “On the other hand, I must be honest. Those of us who are true Apple devotees will buy almost anything they make. We know it, and we don’t care. If they came out with an iPod RiceGrain that was implanted under your skin and played six notes, I’d buy it.”

But what if the shoe were on the other foot?

Marty Lederman has once again taken aim at Heather MacDonald, self-appointed apologist for administation policy about Guantanamo and Abu Ghraib. In a recent item in Balkinization, he writes “Let’s be very clear about this: The DoD General Counsel (who’s recently been renominated for a seat on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit) concluded that threats of killing a detainee’s family members, and waterboarding, and forced nudity, and the use of dogs to induce stress, etc., not only did not violate the UCMJ, but are ‘humane’! There is no indication in the public record that Secretary Rumsfeld or any other high-level DoD official ever contradicted or overruled these legal conclusions — and every indication that Rumsfeld agreed with them.”

And while it’s a point that has been made before, let me repeat: would Ms. MacDonald regard such policies as “humane” and “legal” if they were applied to captured US troops by another power – North Vietnam, say, or perhaps Iran? (Arguing for a difference between regular troops and “terrorists” won’t wash – most of the prisoners in Abu Ghraib had not been legally classified, and the presumption should have been that they were therefore covered by Geneva.) Such an acknowledgement is unlikely to be forthcoming any time soon….

(Via Sully.)

Rant: PO'd at stupid US cellphone companies

For the last year or two, I’ve been using a Nokia 3650 cell phone. It’s quite a nice unit – BlueTooth, a decent screen, Java, a few cool apps (including remote control of my PowerBook), a basic camera, international roaming via GSM – but it’s getting a little long in the tooth. Recently it’s taken to powering off spontaneously, which is a little tedious. So it’s time to look for a new phone.

There are lots of really cool phones out there these days.

  • 3G phones like Motorola’s gorgeous A1000
  • the latest version of Nokia’s intriguing Communicator, the 9500
  • Sony Ericsson’s cool S700 and amazing P910i
  • The “Imate” family, such as O2’s XDA IIs and XDA II mini (sold under various other names)
  • the Treo 650, where palmOne finally got it (mostly) right
  • even HP, with their iPaq 6315 – like the Imate, this include WiFi

I’m sure I’ve missed some. But they all have one thing in common: none of them are available from my phone company. I’m with AT&T Wireless, now merged with Cingular, which makes it unquestionably the biggest GSM provider in the USA. And what do they have for phones? Crap. Or, rather, vanilla, with a few teasers like the Motorola V3 RAZR. I suppose I could switch to T-Mobile, just to get the Treo 650, but the odds are that next time I’m in the market it will be their turn to be behind. Do I really have to buy an unlocked phone? (I know: I’m cheap. But why not?) Don’t the US providers want my business? Do they really think that Blackberry has sewn up the high end market? (It hasn’t.) Or do they only care about the 12-25 year old market? (Dumb.)

What’s wrong with the US market? Why are all the exciting wireless innovations happening in Japan and Europe? And how much would an unlocked O2 XDA IIs cost me….?

(I didn’t bother to take the time to hyperlink all of those phones and companies. You know where to find them. One of my favorite sites for drooling over unattainable gadgetry is Mobile Phones UK. Please wipe the saliva off your keyboard afterwards.)

A few more storm-related pictures

After the snow finally abated, I went out to clear off my car before our ploughing service arrived. (Yes, we have a two-car garage, but my – presently non-running – Miata occupies my space, so my Cougar lives outside.) Opening the door revealed a nice drift to be dug out. The wind had been so fierce that some of the driveway was clear of snow, while other parts had drifts sculpted into sand-dune-like shapes. Fortunately, the town had done a decent job of ploughing the streets around here.
BlizzardBackdoor.jpg BlizzardCarBefore.jpg BlizzardCarAfter.jpg BlizzardDriveway.jpg BlizzardStreet.jpg
A little storm-related item: Boston.com just reported that the retired Boston Globe columnist David Nyhan died today, while shovelling snow. He was 64, and had left the paper (taken the package) at the time of the New York Times takeover. I always enjoyed his irreverence, especially his ability to get under the skin of Boston’s powerful religious lobbies.

Snow pictures

I was wandering round the house this morning with my camera, looking for shots that might capture the feel of this snowstorm without actually requiring me to expose myself to the elements! BlizzardDoor.jpg I took a shot out of the front door – notice how the snow is drifting in the porch, and around the tree by the road. Then looking out of a side window, I saw this downy woodpacker, covered in snow, pecking desperately into a branch. I hope he found some food…. BlizzardWoodpecker.jpg (As usual, click thumbnails for the full-size images.)

UPDATE: Just as I was finishing this blog entry, my wife spotted what looked like newspapers at the end of the front path, and prevailed upon me to go out to retrieve them. For some reason the lyrics from Al Stewart‘s song “Antarctica” drifted into my mind: “The hopeless quest of Shackleton, The dreamlike death of Scott”. Nevertheless I donned boots and coat and plunged into a snowdrift almost up to my waist, while my wife attempted to take pictures of me.BlizzardGeoff.jpg

Will this storm beat the blizzard of '78

Since they’re forecasting snowfalls of 20 to 30 28 to 38 20 to 30 inches in Boston before this storm winds down, I thought I’d see what it would take to break the records, especially the famous “blizzard of ’78”. Here’s the data from the NWS:

Most Snow in 1 Day     Most Snow in 2 Days       Most Snow in 3 Days
21.0  Jan 20 1978      27.1  Feb   6-7 1978      27.1  Feb   5-7 1978
20.0  Jan 24 1945      21.4  Jan 20-21 1978      25.8  Feb 24-26 1969
19.3  Feb 16 1958      20.7  Feb 24-25 1969      22.8  Jan 22-24 1945
19.0  Feb  7 1978      20.0  Jan 24-25 1945      21.7  Jan 18-20 1978
15.0  Feb 20 1934      19.7  Mar   3-4 1960
14.3  Feb  4 1961
13.8  Jan  7 1977