Jim Waldo expressed an understandable skepticism about my inclusion of autonomous agents in my piece on the future of software; I thought I’d share my reply to him:
I think that autonomous agents may be an ever-receding category, a bit like AI. Remember how every advance in AI would provoke the retort, “But that’s just X – that’s not A.I.” Every time we add a bit more autonomous capability to a software component (advertisement, peer group discovery, self-monitoring for SLO, negotiating over a shared security context,….) people will say, “Oh, yes, I see how you can do that, but that’s not REAL agent behaviour.” Some people will insist that we expose the inner workings, and if there isn’t an obviously “AI-like” mechanism like multi-level planning or BDI they’ll deny that it’s an agent. Whatever. [shrug] I just want software systems that are a bit more robust, a bit more tolerant of version skew, a bit better about proactive resource management and self-diagnosis, a bit more flexible about how they organize themselves with their peers.
Author: geoff
The future of software
Many of my colleagues at Sun are busy blogging about the software technologies that they work on – Solaris 10 features like zones (sorry, N1 Grid Containers), ZFS and dtrace; Java platforms (J2*E) and applications like speech synthesis and phone games; even Perl. And all of this is important – as Bruce emphasized, it’s important to articulate who we are and what we do.
I spend much of my time thinking about the future: about what cutting-edge systems and software will look like three or five years out. Now I know that this isn’t fashionable: Jonathan’s priorities for the year, immortalized here, emphasize the tactical rather than the strategic, and that’s just fine with me. And I also know that for most people the answer will be “same as it ever was”, because innovation in computing tends to be additive: augmenting rather than replacing. But the beauty of the future is that it’s already happening. Check out two articles in last week’s Computerworld if you don’t believe me.
Have Jini, will travel describes how Orbitz built their travel reservation system using Java and Jini. To quote from the article:
Under the Orbitz architecture, a customer request to book an airline ticket passes to a Java servlet container — the Jini client — running on BEA Systems Inc.’s WebLogic application server. The Jini client uses the Jini discovery protocol to find a Jini lookup service, which sends a proxy back to the Jini client. Through the proxy, the Jini client uses the lookup service to find a Jini service that can do what it needs. The lookup service then delivers the Jini service proxy back to the Jini client, and the client uses the proxy to communicate directly with the Jini service.
Orbitz registers its 1,332 Jini services on multiple instances of lookup services for redundancy, so there’s never a single point of failure in the event of a power supply or hard drive failure. It also builds redundancy into the servlet containers and the services themselves, scaling horizontally through Intel-based dual-processor PCs running Linux. The PCs act as servers in the Orbitz environment. “It’s not just redundancy; it’s also capacity,” says Hoffman. “If you need today 10 boxes to service a particular request and your traffic doubles, we can just add 10 more, and it’s not only handling twice the capacity but it’s now twice as redundant as it was before.”
While analysts are starting to label every kind of new software methodology as “Service-Oriented Architecture”, Orbitz is running a system consisting of thousands of services, with a high degree of self-configuration and self-healing. It’s a compelling vision. And it’s happening right now. (Shameless plug: I used Orbitz to book last week’s vacation trip to England.)
So what will all of these thousands of application services be doing in the future? Another article in the same paper, Agents of change, looks at the current developments of autonomous agent software. (This is an area that I worked on some years ago; some of our thoughts are summarized here.) Agents represent a paradigm shift as fundamental as object orientation: from building software as a bunch of reactive services and wiring them up according to a fixed pattern, to creating a community of self-interested goal-driven agents that can negotiate with their peers to solve complex problems. (The anthropomorphism is inevitable.) What I find interesting is that the ideas apply at so many levels – to application business logic, as described in the article, but also to service lifecycle and systems management.
What links these two articles is that today the technologies are widely regarded as rocket science, or even science fiction. It’s tempting to hand-wave and assert that a little syntactic sugar and tool-building will allow us to transform these powerful techniques into Lego components for the journeyman programmer. Well, maybe. But we should also consider how they might be used to solve intrinsically complex problems – the kind of thing that today we don’t even try to tackle. One size definitely won’t fit all.
(The other thing that links them is that they describe how our customers are building the future today. And that’s a tactical business opportunity – right, Jonathan?!)
Why no US TV coverage of the Paralympics?
As Boing-Boing reports, quoting the BBC’s Stuart Hughes:
The Paralympics will boast:4000 athletes. 140 countries represented.525 gold medals at stake. 19 sports. There will be no American TV coverage of the Paralympics. Let me repeat that. There will be NO AMERICAN TV COVERAGE OF THE PARALYMPICS. Not one hour of live coverage. Not one commentator. Not one Olympian on the commentary team. Nothing. This at the same time that a record number of journalists are preparing to cover the Paralympics.”
This is really shameful. I just emailed my opinion to the NBC Olympics feedback address. I recommend you do the same.
Contact
FYI, there’s now a new way to contact me: first.last@gmail.com. Make the appropriate substitutions.
How come "pro-life" doesn't include the mother's life?
Respectful of Otters just posted a piece about so-called “partial birth abortion”. It cites an article in Ms. about a woman whose baby died in utero at 19 weeks. She was forced to spend a week carrying a dead fetus inside her – bleeding steadily, at risk of hemorrhage – before she could be treated. Quite simply, no-one was willing to treat her, because the safest procedure for removing the fetus was proscribed under the “partial birth abortion” ban.
Excellent analysis of the strategy behind 9/11 by Juan Cole
Please read Juan Cole‘s piece on September 11 and its aftermath. I doubt anyone who reads my blog actually believes Bush’s blatherings about the perpetrators “hating freedom”, so I may be preaching to the choir, but this piece explains the real strategic thinking involved.
Heading home
We’re flying home to the States today. The day started with the hotel fire alarm going off at 6:20am just as I was turning on the shower. That was exciting. While we were sitting outside in the car, waiting for the all-clear, I read Robert Fisk in today’s Independent on the third anniversary of 9/11. Powerful and pointed as always. (Hands up those who knew where Fallujah was three years ago.)
After showering and packing, I came over to the WiFi hotspot to log in. As I started typing this, Morrissey’s America Is Not The World started playing over in the restaurant. I’ve heard it almost every day while I’ve been here. What a tragedy, that Bush and his henchmen should so totally squander, trash, and sh*t upon the worldwide compassion and empathy that followed 9/11. And how depressing that Americans appear unable to see Bush for what he is.
Talking to people over here, mostly professional or academic, I find a curious attitude towards the US Presidential election. Of course they are interested, and of course they hope that Bush is defeated, but it’s not accompanied by any great expectations. It’s almost as if they’ve written America off: it’s a hopeless case, perhaps it will come to its senses some day, but there’s no point in thinking too much about that. (I saw one op-ed piece that pointed out that since the actions of the US had such an impact on everybody around the world, maybe we all should be entitled to vote for the POTUS. And the lapsing of the assault gun ban was the occasion for the usual head-shaking about the suicidal insanity of a gun-drenched culture.)
Of course this raises more questions than it answers. But that’s for another occasion.
Update: We’re now home – but not before experiencing yet another fire alarm: this time in Heathrow Terminal 3. Every passenger in the terminal was herded into the structure that links the terminal to the more remote gates, while ear-splitting sirens blared overhead. It was 20 minutes before the Terminal was declared safe.
Lucky timing
This morning we went into Oxford to do some shopping – some more books (surely not?!) and some items for my mother. Lunch time rolled around, and we decided to try a place in the Covered Market that sells authentic Cornish Pasties. (No, nothing to do with costume accessories for West Country strippers..!) While Merry had a second cup of tea, I went round the corner to the Auto Model shop, with a vague idea of buying one more model.
In addition to the man who runs that branch, the district manager was there, ranting on the phone to someone. When he’d finished, and saw that I was about to buy a small bus model, he jerked a thumb in the direction of a pile of large boxes and asked if I had any idea what was in them. “Take a look at these before you buy anything,” he said, and opened the top box to reveal a 1/24 scale Sun Star RM8 Routemaster model. This is reckoned to be the finest bus model ever produced for retail; only a couple of thousand are being made, and all have been reserved for months. But he had one cancellation… and so I bought it, for £99, and arranged for them to ship it to the US for me. It’ll be the culmination of my collection; I doubt I’ll buy many more bus models after this. But what a way to go.
The use of TV drama to enhance fear and panic?
Last night I watched part two of The Grid on BBC. This is a joint BBC/TNT/Fox drama that “explores both sides of the escalating war on terror”. Call me a cynic, but it seemed to me that the main effect that the producers were looking for was to convince the viewing public that (a) the law enforcement and counter-terrorism forces in the US and UK are mostly incompetent, and (b) we should all be VERY, VERY, AFRAID of everyone and everything. Carl Rove (Bush’s choreographer of campaign dirt and panic) must have been delighted.
American cars are boring
OK, not all of them. But when I was driving down the M40 yesterday towards Oxford and was overtaken by a couple of Vauxhall VX220s and MG TFs, I wondered what had happened to the American sports car. The Corvette? The Viper?
And while I was musing on this, a Ford Streetka blasted by.
Now that’s just plain fun. Much more enjoyable than the typical American SUV (with the aerodynamics of a brick and handling to match).